Perspective.

https://blog.samaltman.com/three-observations

Three Observations

… We continue to see rapid progress with AI development. Here are three observations about the economics of AI:

1. The intelligence of an AI model roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it. These resources are chiefly training compute, data, and inference compute. It appears that you can spend arbitrary amounts of money and get continuous and predictable gains; the scaling laws that predict this are accurate over many orders of magnitude.

2. The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and lower prices lead to much more use. You can see this in the token cost from GPT-4 in early 2023 to GPT-4o in mid-2024, where the price per token dropped about 150x in that time period. Moore’s law changed the world at 2x every 18 months; this is unbelievably stronger.

3. The socioeconomic value of linearly increasing intelligence is super-exponential in nature. A consequence of this is that we see no reason for exponentially increasing investment to stop in the near future.

Perspective.

https://www.techpolicy.press/anatomy-of-an-ai-coup/

Anatomy of an AI Coup

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a technology for manufacturing excuses. While lacking clear definitions or tools for assessment, AI has nonetheless seized the imagination of politicians and managers across government, academia, and industry. But what AI is best at producing is justifications. If you want a labor force, a regulatory bureaucracy, or accountability to disappear, you simply say, “AI can do it.” Then, the conversation shifts from explaining why these things should or should not go away to questions about how AI would work in their place.

We are in the midst of a political coup that, if successful, would forever change the nature of American government. It is not taking place in the streets. There is no martial law. It is taking place cubicle by cubicle in federal agencies and in the mundane automation of bureaucracy. The rationale is based on a productivity myth that the goal of bureaucracy is merely what it produces (services, information, governance) and can be isolated from the process through which democracy achieves those ends: debate, deliberation, and consensus.

AI then becomes a tool for replacing politics. The Trump administration frames generative AI as a remedy to "government waste." However, what it seeks to automate is not paperwork but democratic decision-making. Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are banking on a popular but false delusion that word prediction technologies make meaningful inferences about the world. They are using it to sidestep Congressional oversight of the budget, which is, Constitutionally, the allotment of resources to government programs through representative politics.

Economics of AI…

https://www.infodocket.com/2025/02/09/report-microsoft-offers-authors-5000-to-train-ai-on-their-books/

Report: “Microsoft Offers Authors $5,000 to Train AI On Their Books”

The company has proposed a licensing agreement with publisher HarperCollins that would pay $5,000 per book for AI training rights. Authors would receive half of that amount, or $2,500 per book, according to the publisher.

Read the Complete Article

Microsoft has pursued “an incredible strategy,” says Brown University economics professor Emily Oster. “They’re trying to establish the idea that the rights to train on books are worth $5,000. You can’t do that by going to the latest bestseller. So you do that by going to the backlist — to people who aren’t collecting royalties — and telling them, ‘Look, would you like some free money?’”