Friday, October 02, 2026

Always amusing. (But I have a strange sense of humor…)

https://www.bespacific.com/the-price-of-you/

The Price of You

Project Syndicate: “…The breadth and granularity of what companies now know about their customers is astonishing. When San Francisco-based WIRED reporter Reece Rogers asked McDonald’s for a copy of the data the company keeps on him—a right he enjoys as a California resident under the state’s privacy law—he expected to get a log of all the burgers he has purchased over the years. Instead, he received a 515-page dossier: McDonald’s predicted how many times he would visit a restaurant in the next six weeks (2.16, to be exact) and labeled his behaviors (he tends toward a “Food-Led Afternoon Snack”). He was assigned an attrition score of zero. Rogers, it seems, is a McDonald’s lifer. While the invasiveness of the dossier came as a bit of a shock to Rogers, it’s not surprising for economists who study pricing. In 2004, Duke University economist Curtis Taylor asked what would happen once firms could buy and sell records of what shoppers purchased. Gone were the days of Box Top coupons on Betty Crocker boxes; by that point, loyalty programs had gone mainstream and were cataloging every dollar customers spent at the grocery store and on flights. Taylor predicted that companies would use these records to identify their most eager customers and charge them more. Loyal customers, he said, would pay the price, especially if they had no idea that their data was changing hands. Taylor’s warning stayed buried in the academic literature while the practice crept, largely unnoticed, into our shopping carts. Or, in Rogers’s case, Big Mac orders.

  • Purchase history is now the least of it. As shopping is increasingly conducted online, companies also collect customers’ location, demographics, behavior, and biometric data. A recent Federal Trade Commission study uncovered systems created by the likes of Mastercard and Accenture that log whether your cursor hovers over a “buy” button, lingers on a product name, or drifts toward “close tab.” Delivery platform DoorDash recently filed a patent for a technology that tracks 16 different signals, including phone battery level, how quickly and jerkily users scroll, and how long it’s been since a consumer last ordered a meal.

  • Consumers are often unaware of how much of their personal data is being collected. Car companies like General Motors have amassed millions of drivers’ precise location and driving-behavior data through technologies like OnStar, and then sold this information to insurance companies to feed into car-insurance rates. When Walmart bought the television maker Vizio, the retail behemoth had littleinterest in televisions. By linking Vizio TVs to Walmart accounts, Walmart could merge data on the ads consumers watch with what they buy in the company’s stores and on its website…”





California leads, will anyone follow?

https://www.bespacific.com/ca-gov-signed-law-setting-rules-for-how-lawyers-are-permitted-to-use-generative-ai-in-their-work/

CA Gov signed law setting rules for how lawyers are permitted to use generative AI in their work

Reuters: “California Governor Gavin Newsom has signed into law first-of-its-kind state legislation setting rules for how lawyers are permitted to use generative AI in their work. Newsom signed the bill, SB 574, on Wednesday alongside a slate of other AI-related measures that he said are intended to protect workers, empower doctors and ‌prevent fraudsters online. Courts across the country have imposed sanctions and issued warnings to lawyers who failed to vet AI-generated material and included “hallucinated” material in filings. Individual judges and courts have also issued standing orders setting guardrails on the use of AI. No other state has enacted a law targeted at lawyers’ and arbitrators’ use of the technology, though some attorneys have said the measure is partly duplicative of existing rules. The law builds on requirements that already bind lawyers under state rules governing civil litigation, such as the need for court filings to be supported by existing law. “The legislation overlaps with existing legal ethics rules but serves as a reminder that lawyers need to be checking and verifying the output received from AI tools,” Daren Orzechowski, a Silicon Valley-based M&A and technology transactions partner at A&O Shearman, said in an email.

Under the new measure, an attorney cannot “delegate the practice of law” to generative AI. A lawyer responsible for submitting a filing in court must personally verify citations, including those provided by AI. Lawyers also must take “reasonable steps” to verify AI outputs, correct any false or hallucinated output in any AI-generated material they use, and disclose the use of ‌AI for documents submitted in court. They are barred from entering confidential or other nonpublic information into certain generative AI systems. Arbitrators are restricted from delegating any decision-making to an AI tool. That new verification requirement likely won’t curb lawyers’ use of AI, but could “dramatically expand the amount of time that the signing attorney would be required to spend reviewing the legal and evidentiary citations in each filing,” said Ariel House, a litigation partner in Baker Botts’ San Francisco office. Newsom signed the bill, SB 574, yesterday alongside a slate of other AI-related measures that he said are intended to protect workers, empower doctors and prevent fraudsters online….”





Inflation?

https://www.krqe.com/news/new-mexico/new-mexico-court-to-rule-on-penalties-meta-faces-in-privacy-violation-case/

New Mexico attorney asks for $40B penalty against Meta in state case

The State of New Mexico is asking a judge for the biggest penalty ever awarded in a court case in the United States to punish Facebook for lying to New Mexicans. The attorney for the State of New Mexico is calling for Facebook’s parent company Meta to pay up to $40 billion, after a jury found they willfully deceived customers.

… The number falls short of the $219 billion maximum allowed under the jury’s verdict. But McGinn argued that she believes the amount would stand up in the Court of Appeals.





Why I respect philosophy. (Why LLM’s are bullshitters...)

https://thenextweb.com/news/the-difference-between-a-liar-and-a-bullshitter

The difference between a liar and a bullshitter

… The liar knows the truth. That’s the key thing about them. They know exactly what’s true, and they work hard to steer you away from it. Which means, oddly enough, the liar still respects the truth. They have to. So they keep one eye on it at all times so they know what to hide. The liar and the honest person are playing the same game, just on opposite sides.

The bullshitter isn’t playing that game at all. They don’t know what’s true and they don’t care. They’ll tell you the sky is green if green is what gets him through the conversation, and they’ll tell you it’s blue thirty seconds later if that works better. Truth and falsehood are the same to them because they aren’t aiming at either one. They’re aiming at sounding good.

That, Frankfurt argued, is what makes the bullshitter the more dangerous of the two. The liar at least admits the truth is out there somewhere. The bullshitter has simply decided that it doesn’t matter.



Thursday, October 01, 2026

A license to spend and spend quickly?

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/09/30/hegseth-announces-new-four-star-command-for-autonomous-warfare/

Hegseth announces new four-star command for autonomous warfare

The Pentagon is creating a new four-star command to oversee the military’s push into autonomous warfare, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the technology is advancing faster than the military’s acquisition system can keep up.

The Autonomous Warfare Command, or AutoWarCom, will have service-like authorities and is intended to scale autonomous and robotic capabilities across the military, Hegseth said during his State of the Force address at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia, on Wednesday.

Hegseth said the new command is intended to address an acquisition system that cannot keep pace with the speed of technological change on the battlefield.



(Related) Should be an amusing report...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/musk-luckey-gingrich-pentagon-hegseth-.html

Elon Musk, Palmer Luckey and Newt Gingrich to help Pentagon with warfare initiative, Hegseth says

The Pentagon is tapping Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, defense technology entrepreneur and Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to identify the military capabilities, technologies and weapons the U.S. may need in future wars, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday.

The initiative, dubbed Project Meridian, will spend 120 days looking years and decades ahead at how warfare could change and what capabilities the U.S. military will need to maintain a technological edge.





Is it the targeting that caused the problem? (Learning on everything might be okay?)

https://www.courthousenews.com/ai-training-of-copyrighted-material-not-fair-use-third-circuit/

AI training of copyrighted material not fair use: Third Circuit

The Third Circuit rejected an artificial intelligence company’s fair use defense after it trained its AI on a competitor’s product, finding the training constituted copyright infringement — and potentially setting a landmark precedent for artificial intelligence.

Thomson Reuters sued now-defunct AI startup ROSS Intelligence in 2020, claiming ROSS took headnotes — short descriptions of important legal issues that appear before judicial opinions — from its Westlaw database, using a third party called LegalEase Solutions to gain access after Westlaw refused ROSS access.

ROSS then used that data “not for the purposes of legal research, but to rush out a competing product” by training its artificial intelligence on Westlaw’s headnotes, Reuters said in its complaint.



Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Something we need to understand and perhaps undermine…

https://www.bespacific.com/how-to-beat-surveillance-pricing-before-it-bleeds-you-dry/

How to Beat Surveillance Pricing Before It Bleeds You Dry

Wired: “Consumer advocate Lindsay Owen’s new book, Gouged, traces how corporations use software—from ever-changing prices to opaque algorithms—to squeeze every penny from you… These core frustrations were what drew me to Gouged: The End of a Fair Price and What That Means for Your Wallet. Author Lindsay Owens knows what it’s like to advocate for consumers’ economic interests. She’s the CEO of Groundwork Collaborative, a DC think tank and corporate watchdog, and previously worked as an economic policy adviser in Senator Elizabeth Warren’s office…. Before the launch of her book, available now, we spoke about how software has been instrumental in changing how goods are priced, and how generative AI could make existing issues worse. Owens also shared a couple of tips for readers who want to claw back a fair price.

Surveillance pricing is a technique that’s at the intersection of two things Americans hate: getting preyed on and being ripped off. It’s a colloquialism for something you might have learned about in economics class called personalized pricing. This is the idea of changing prices not based on market conditions, not based on demographic groups. In first-degree price discrimination, the company uses information about me personally to decide and estimate my willingness to pay. Importantly, willingness to pay isn’t the same thing as ability to pay. Maybe you need something urgently—you’re a mom in the middle of the night with a sick kid, and you need Tylenol on your doorstep in the morning. There are all sorts of reasons why you might be desperate.
  • See also Washington Post – Here’s how to fix algorithmic pricing. In a digital era that allows prices and fees to change in an instant, some are pushing for new consumer protections.

  • See also Lindsay Owens’s “Gouged” via Pluralistic – “Lindsay Owens is the executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, who have done some of the most important work on surveillance pricing (using computers to spy on you to rip you off) and algorithmic wage discrimination (using computers to spy on you and steal your wages). Today, she publishes Gouged, a comprehensive, accessible guide to this modern scourge…. Owens does important work here: sector by sector and scam by scam, she lays out how companies collude – often with the assistance of a captured and tame state – to reduce competition in order to raise prices, from groceries to rents to airline tickets. She describes how online sellers exploit their information asymmetry, their ability to both directly observe you and millions of other consumers, and to augment those observations with sensitive information purchased from the wild west of data brokers, to steer you into paying more and getting less. These schemes run the gamut from subscriptions you sign up for with a single click but can’t get shut off without canceling your credit card, to lengthy check-out processes that end with a long set of junk prices that tack another 10 or 20% onto the cost you thought you were about to pay…”

  • See also CNBC – Inside McDonald’s push to have AI price your Big Mac – McDonald’s pricing engine uses machine-learning algorithms to continually analyze data from millions of daily transactions across McDonald’s nearly 14,000 restaurants and generate what the company calls “the optimal price” at each location for each menu item, from Big Macs to discounted coffee for seniors.





Modern war has no fixed front. Collateral damage is the new black.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/29/estonia-blames-russia-arson-attack-drone-maker-ukraine

Estonia blames Russia for arson attack on drone maker supplying Ukraine

European and Nato leaders have expressed full support for Estonia and Ukraine after the Baltic state said an August arson attack on a drone manufacturer supplying Kyiv was an act of sabotage commissioned by Moscow’s security services.



(Related) A dry run, or “something completely different?”

https://www.npr.org/2026/09/28/g-s1-145245/britain-us-base-suspected-foiled-attack

5 men arrested near a U.S.-run base bailed as UK police probe if there's an Iran link

Five young British men arrested on explosives and terror charges near a U.S.-operated air force base in England were released on bail Monday, and counterterror detectives said they were investigating "multiple lines of inquiry," including whether there is a link to Iran.

… Britain's national news agency, PA, reported without citing sources that police had not found viable explosives.



Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Has AI been reading Adam Smith? (How do they react if I’m willing to pay less?)

https://www.reuters.com/business/inside-mcdonalds-push-have-ai-price-your-big-mac-2026-09-29/

Insight: Inside McDonald’s push to have AI price your Big Mac

McDonald’s is increasingly using artificial intelligence to guide menu prices across the U.S. and some global markets, a plan that aims to boost headquarters’ profit but risks alienating customers and attracting antitrust scrutiny.

One pricing factor supercharged by AI: an estimate of how much each store's patrons are willing to pay.





War is coming. Shooting is easier. No need to wait to see the whites of their eyes…

https://notesfrompoland.com/2026/09/29/poland-changes-rules-of-engagement-for-firing-on-foreign-aircraft-amid-growing-russia-threat/

Poland changes rules of engagement for firing on foreign aircraft amid growing Russia threat

Poland is changing the procedures under which its military can fire upon foreign aircraft, citing the “growing threat from Russia”. Visual identification of targets will no longer be required, with other forms of data to be used instead.

The move follows a series of violations of Polish airspace over the last year by Russian drones, a missile and a helicopter, as well as Russia’s increasing use of jet-powered drones to attack targets in Ukraine close to the Polish border.





Assume something has already happened?

https://thenextweb.com/news/raf-space-squadron-satellites

The RAF launches a new space squadron to defend UK satellites

The Royal Air Force has set up a new space squadron, the Ministry of Defence said on 23 September. No. III Space Effects Squadron is the first UK unit dedicated to disrupting, degrading and denying threats to British satellites.

Air Chief Marshal Sir Harv Smyth, the Chief of the Air Staff, announced it at the first UK Space Power Conference. The squadron joins No. I Space Operations Squadron and No. II Space Warning Squadron, which watch for threats in space. The new unit will act against them.

It will use advanced technology, including electronic warfare, and support both defensive and offensive operations. The MoD has not said more. A spokesperson told The Register the details are classified.





An interesting take on security.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/09/28/nvidia-open-agent-platform-is-sensible-step-ai-safety/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNzkwNTY4MDAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNzkxOTUwMzk5LCJpYXQiOjE3OTA1NjgwMDAsImp0aSI6IjUwYTJhNzRmLTBiYTEtNGQwMS1hNjBkLWRlMTRlY2VkZjg0YSIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9vcGluaW9ucy8yMDI2LzA5LzI4L252aWRpYS1vcGVuLWFnZW50LXBsYXRmb3JtLWlzLXNlbnNpYmxlLXN0ZXAtYWktc2FmZXR5LyJ9.dnCVnkLZ1LDGY-0uJ6tO1xM1_JuHWEmrwEQFuy0fygY

AI doesn’t need a conscience. It needs a leash.

The safety of artificial intelligence may be less a problem of ethics — teaching machines how to behave — than one of engineering: AI systems can never be fully trusted, so they must be heavily constrained.

… Launched with the support of more than 100 industry partners, Nvidia’s Open Agent Safety Platform places hard limits on what these agents can do, using deterministic software that exists outside the AI to enforce the rules. The system may not be bulletproof out of the gate, but the very existence of an engineered solution suggests regulators should pace themselves.



(Related)

https://thenextweb.com/news/florida-openai-temporary-injunction-model-development-uthmeier

Florida asks a court to stop OpenAI building new AI models

Florida’s attorney general, James Uthmeier, has asked a state court to stop OpenAI from developing new AI models without independent safety guardrails. He made the request in a motion for a temporary injunction filed on Monday.



(Related)

https://www.axios.com/2026/09/26/openai-anthropic-thousands-ai-security-incidents

Scoop: Top AI companies probing tens of thousands of security incidents

OpenAI, Anthropic and security researchers are investigating tens of thousands of incidents in which their frontier models took steps that outside evaluators would consider problematic, sources told Axios.

Why it matters: The sheer number of incidents, which occurred in recent months in internal testing and the real world, indicates that the problem is orders of magnitude more complex than what is publicly known.



Monday, September 28, 2026

Cambridge Analytica just keeps on giving Meta headaches…

https://thenextweb.com/news/meta-new-mexico-jury-cambridge-analytica-verdict

Jury finds Meta misled New Mexico users over Cambridge Analytica

A jury in Santa Fe, New Mexico, found on Friday that Facebook deceived users about how it protected their data, including in its response to the Cambridge Analytica scandal. Jurors found more than 43 million violations of the state’s consumer protection law, Mikella Schuettler reported for the Associated Press.

The count is based on the number of people affected by Meta’s misleading statements, Diana Novak Jones reported for Reuters. Judge Francis Mathew can award up to $5,000 per violation, and the state will ask for the maximum. If he awards that for every violation, Meta could owe more than $200 billion, according to the AP. The judge will set the penalty at a hearing on 1 October.





Not even flea bites, but annoying at least. (Is Putin looking for something that provokes no response?)

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-vladimir-putin-is-testing-nato-on-norways-remote-arctic-islands/

Putin is testing NATO on Norway’s remote Arctic islands

… Fears are growing that Moscow could use the sprawling Arctic archipelago — a part of Norway with an unusual legal status — to test NATO militarily amid growing uncertainty over the U.S. commitment to European defense.

Allies suspect Russia of probing crucial undersea cables in the waters off Svalbard and staging military-style events that test the limits of the rules governing its presence there. As Russia ramps up hybrid attacks across Europe, Oslo is racing to boost its naval and surveillance capabilities to protect its northern flank, while local authorities on Svalbard are investing in critical infrastructure — and even have an evacuation plan in place.



(Related)

https://nypost.com/2026/09/27/world-news/finland-and-sweden-scramble-fighter-jets-together-against-russia-in-historic-first/

Finland and Sweden scramble fighter jets together against Russia in historic first

Finnish and Swedish fighter jets scrambled for the first time on Sept. 24 to intercept supersonic Russian military aircraft flying over the Gulf of Finland, marking a major milestone in Nordic defense cooperation amid heightened tensions with Moscow.



Sunday, September 27, 2026

Not sure I get this argument. Keep my AI generating text until I find one I like?

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7486179

Adoption as Authorship

The U.S. Copyright Office treats expression generated by AI as categorically unprotectable, even when a human directs the process and incorporates the output into a work. This Article argues that the Office's position rests on a mistaken model of authorship, in which the author must personally generate each element of fixed expression or at least transcribe a precise mental conception formed in advance. Neither model describes how authors actually work. Creation proceeds by trial and error. Authors generate expressive variations, often through processes they do not control, and settle on results that fulfill an intent that may itself change along the way. Photographers shooting in burst mode, Ellsworth Kelly’s randomly dropped paper fragments, and Judge Frank’s “clap of thunder” in Alfred Bell & Co. v. Catalda all show that copyright already recognizes authorship of expression the author did not deliberately generate. The Article contends that the irreducible act of authorship is adoption, meaning the choice to treat a set of sensory signals as the embodiment of one's expressive intent. The joint authorship cases support this account. They locate authorship in decision-making authority over what the work will contain, not in the generation of content. The adoption theory does not license appropriating preexisting material, because originality doctrine separately bars claims to the commons or to others' expression. On this reading, originality works like the Lockean limits on appropriation. AI output is abundant and takes nothing from the commons, so there is no principled reason to deny protection to a human author who adopts it as her own expression.





Collective liability?

https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003736134-11/autonomous-vehicles-scarlett-swain-lisa-collingwood

Autonomous Vehicles

As the autonomous vehicle industry shifts toward collaborative innovation models – through patent pools, FRAND licensing, and shared software stacks – existing legal frameworks struggle to keep pace. While intellectual property (IP) law encourages proprietary innovation, these new modes of cooperation demand a rethinking of how both innovation and liability are shared. This chapter critically evaluates how collaborative IP organisation in the autonomous vehicle industry are reshaping traditional boundaries of legal responsibility, particularly in the context of tort law. It argues that the current model of isolated liability is incompatible with a horizontally integrated autonomous vehicle sector where numerous actors contribute to safety-critical infrastructure. The chapter proposes a framework – a Collaborative Risk Doctrine – that links IP sharing with proportional liability allocation. This includes safe harbour provisions for open-standard compliance, and model licensing agreements that incorporate tort risk-sharing procedures. Regulation can align innovation incentives with accountability in a complex, multi-stakeholder environment.





We’re not at war. We’re not at war. We’re not at war.

https://abcnews.com/International/uk-police-arrest-explosives-act-major-incident-us/story?id=136793301

UK police arrest several under explosives act in 'major incident' near US air base

British police announced on Sunday morning that several people were arrested "on suspicion of offenses under the explosives act" close to a major air base hosting U.S. forces in the southwest of England.

"A number of properties are currently being evacuated in the Whelford area following the declaration of a major incident," Gloucestershire Police said in a statement. "It follows the arrest of several men on suspicion of offenses under the explosives act."

The village of Whelford is located around 2 miles from RAF Fairford, which hosts the U.S. Air Force and has since February been serving as a key hub for American operations against Iran -- including for heavy bombers like the B-1 Lancer and B-52 Stratofortress.





Would Congress view such laws as limiting their own future earnings?

https://www.nationalreview.com/2026/09/only-congress-can-intervene-on-trumps-truth-social-profiteering/

Only Congress Can Intervene on Trump’s Truth Social Profiteering

What the president and his associates are doing is probably illegal. Whether any legal action could successfully be brought is another matter.

Yet again, an appalling example of profiteering off the nation’s highest office by Donald Trump and his family illustrates that the legal system is not equipped to address abuses of executive power. In our system, either Congress acts or there is no remedy any time soon, perhaps ever.





Apparently Trump does not know that the name has already been taken.

https://www.axios.com/2026/09/25/trump-ai-super-intelligence-tech-definition

Inside Trump's "super intelligence" naming problem

President Trump is pushing world leaders and U.S. agencies to rename AI "super intelligence."

Why it matters: "Superintelligence" already has a distinct meaning in AI — and is fueling debates over whether the most advanced systems should be slowed or stopped.

The big picture: Superintelligence — broadly, AI that surpasses human cognition — has become both an industry ambition and the focus of efforts to slow its development or ban it altogether.

Yes, but: Trump doesn't seem to be talking about that kind of superintelligent AI.

  • "The use of the word 'artificial' ... makes it sound fake," he said before the UN General Assembly gathering on Tuesday, adding, "it is not fake. It's actually amazing."

  • He announced that all "United States documents, and hopefully the world's, will be changed to use the much more accurate term 'super' as opposed to artificial."



Saturday, September 26, 2026

Some places are still private?

https://www.courthousenews.com/fourth-circuit-calls-real-time-cellphone-tracking-a-search/

Fourth Circuit calls real-time cellphone tracking a search

Police wanting to use a device mimicking a cellphone tower to locate people must first get a warrant, a Fourth Circuit panel ruled Thursday.

Kerron Andrews was arrested by the Baltimore Police Department in May 2014, after the police secured a court order allowing them to use a cell-site simulator to obtain his real-time location information. Andrews’ cellphone provider had allowed the police to determine his location within a few blocks, before the police used a simulator to determine he was in a specific townhouse.

Andrews told the Fourth Circuit panel this past January that the court order did not satisfy the Fourth Circuit’s warrant requirement. The panel disagreed Thursday, while recognizing that cellphones pose a unique threat to individual privacy.

The precision of the technology used by the police is invasive, U.S. Circuit Judge Nicole Berner wrote for the majority, and people have a reasonable expectation of privacy in a private home. The Joe Biden appointee was joined by U.S. Circuit Judge Toby Heytens, also a Biden appointee.

“This technology is akin to sense-enhancing technology that allows the government to peer into a private home, which the Supreme Court has repeatedly held requires a warrant,” she wrote. The cell-site simulator effectively “cracked open the front door” of the property to reveal Andrews, she said.





Should we consider this a ‘war warning?’

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/europe/europe-frets-kremlin-pushes-limits-hybrid-warfare-rcna599351

Europe frets as the Kremlin pushes the limits of its hybrid warfare

The Kremlin is testing Europe‘s limits.

After months of covert attacks and sabotage across the continent, leaders are warning that Moscow may be about to grow bolder as it seeks to sow chaos and intimidate allies of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s resolve to defend members on its eastern flank or respond to attacks that fall short of all-out war, these officials say, at a time when the U.S. is distracted by other conflicts and weighing reducing its military presence in Europe.

An assessment by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service released Thursday warned that in the coming months Moscow will further intensify its campaign of so-called hybrid warfare, “with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past.” It also assessed “a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia.”