Is AI running the economy?
https://www.bespacific.com/trade-war-trumps-tariff-calculations-slammed-by-some-economists/
Trade war: Trump’s tariff calculations slammed by some economists
@JamesSurowiecki. Author of The Wisdom of Crowds. Contributing writer for Fast Company and The Atlantic. Editor at The Yale Review. I wrote The Financial Page for The New Yorker. “Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn’t actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country’s exports to us. So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is…”
sunk-cost fallacy (n.) — “the phenomenon whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial” Forbes: Trump, debuting rates including 54% for China, 20% for the European Union and 26% for India, said the figures were based on “the combined rate of all their tariffs, non-monetary barriers and other forms of cheating” that was then divided in half because Trump wanted to be “kind.”
Analyses posted on social media and in news articles determined the numbers were based on a much more simplistic calculation made by dividing a country’s trade surplus (representing the value by which a country’s exports exceeds the cost of its imports from the U.S.) by its total export value, then multiplying the figure by 0.5.
The formula matched the tariffs Trump debuted for China, the European Union, Indonesia, India and Vietnam, Ian Bremmer, a global political scientist and founder of Eurasia Group consultancy firm, pointed out on X, writing “this is…incredibly stupid.”
China, for example, had a trade surplus of $295 billion with the U.S. last year, with $438 billion worth of goods exported to the U.S.—$295 billion divided by $438 billion is equal to 67%, and divided in half equals the 34% tariff rate Trump debuted Wednesday.
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative later confirmed the formula by publishing what appears to be a complex math equation for calculating the tariff rates, but when stripped of its Greek letters, shows it’s essentially based on countries’ trade surpluses with the U.S. divided by their export value then divided in half…”
The approach suggests countries could lower their tariffs by buying more U.S. products, which would be “very difficult for Asian, particularly poorer Asian countries, to meet US demand ... given that U.S. goods are much more expensive, and the purchasing power is lower for countries targeted with the highest levels of tariffs,” Natixis senior economist Trinh Nguyen told CNBC. ‘This is to economics what creationism is to biology,’ says Lawrence Summers, ex-treasury secretary and National Economic Council director… After imposing a baseline of 10 per cent on all trading partners, Trump claimed on Wednesday that in assessing the tariffs that a “worst offender” charged the US, his team included “currency manipulation and trade barriers” to arrive at the total. But the White House apparently took the US trade deficit with a country, then divided the deficit by the total dollar value of imports from that country – and then divided that result by two. That way, Trump said on Wednesday, “we charge them less, so how can anybody be upset?” For example, Chinese imports face reciprocal tariffs of 34 per cent. To calculate that, the Trump team apparently took the annual US trade deficit with China, US$295 billion, then divided that by the value of imports the US buys from China, US$440 billion. That calculation results in 67 per cent, the overall tariff figure Trump claimed on Wednesday was the level of China’s tariffs on US imports. By halving that and rounding up, the result was a US reciprocal tariff on Chinese imports of 34 per cent. This short cut works with every country listed…”
See also Independent: CNBC’s Steve Liesman: “So then I started calling international trade economic experts. And nobody ever heard of this formula. Nobody has ever used this formula… the conclusion seems to be that the president kind of made this up as he went along.”
If you are looking for a quote…
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-liberation-day-tariffs-reactions-commentators-2025-4
Here's what the smartest people in markets and economics are saying about Trump's tariffs
Model?
https://newjerseymonitor.com/briefs/governor-murphy-signs-bill-criminalizing-deepfakes/
Governor Murphy signs bill criminalizing deepfakes
… The new law makes producing and sharing deepfakes a third-degree crime if they are used for an unlawful purpose — say, to harass or extort someone — with fines up to $30,000 or a maximum of five years in prison. The governor was joined Tuesday by Lt. Gov Tahesha Way and advocates like Francesca Mani.
Mani, a Westfield High School student who was a target of sexually explicit deepfakes shared by peers, helped inspire the legislation.