How future wars will begin?
A Cyberattack Was Part of the US Assault on Venezuela
We don’t have many details:
President Donald Trump suggested Saturday that the U.S. used cyberattacks or other technical capabilities to cut power off in Caracas during strikes on the Venezuelan capital that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
If true, it would mark one of the most public uses of U.S. cyber power against another nation in recent memory. These operations are typically highly classified, and the U.S. is considered one of the most advanced nations in cyberspace operations globally.
What are the odds that the US invades Greenland? (Did Trump insiders make lots of bets?)
Gambling platform Polymarket not paying bets on US invasion of Venezuela
The online wager platform Polymarket has angered some gamblers by declaring it will not settle millions of dollars’ worth of bets on a US invasion of Venezuela, arguing that the capture of the then president, Nicolás Maduro, does not qualify.
Before Donald Trump’s forces seized Maduro on Saturday morning, some traders appeared to have anticipated the shock move by placing bets on “prediction markets”.
These are gambling platforms that allow individuals to wager on a range of markets that have been created by the host website. They are typically binary bets, punting on yes/no or higher/lower outcomes.
Last Friday an anonymous trader on Polymarket appeared to invest $30,000 (£22,343) on the market: Maduro out by 31 January 2026. After Maduro’s capture was announced on Saturday morning, the trader seemed to have made profits of $436,759.61.
Clearly, I don’t understand tariffs.
https://fortune.com/2026/01/06/trump-trade-tariffs-revenue-inflation-stocks/
Trump’s trade tariff revenue is already in decline, and Wall Street is pretty happy about it
When the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its most recent measure of consumer price inflation was just 2.7%, it came as a surprise to many. The consensus prediction on Wall Street had been 3.1%.
Ever since President Donald Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs last April, economists have been expecting the extra cost of those tariffs to show up in the inflation numbers. After all, the effective tariff rate on goods imported from China was as high as 57.6% in November 2025, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Surely this would force up the price of goods for consumers?
Nope, according to two new studies. Historically, tariffs haven’t resulted in big bursts of inflation, the studies from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Northwestern University show. That’s because importing companies tend to find ways around the tariffs, or because countries negotiate enough compromises and exemptions to the tariffs to reduce the headline rate.
(Related)
What Can History Tell Us About Tariff Shocks?
The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a large shock on unemployment and inflation is by looking at data from pre-World War II periods with tariff rate changes of a similar magnitude. Analysis shows that previous tariff hikes raised unemployment and reduced both economic activity and inflation. Uncertainty may be a factor behind these effects: A large tariff increase raises uncertainty, which can depress overall demand and lead to lower inflation.
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